China Attack Australia - More than four in 10 Australians believe the Chinese are coming, and analysts say this is partly because of the government's "drums of war" rhetoric.
Former defense official Alan Bam says: "For Taiwan, the potential for war and its consequences are very real, while the Australians - and are 'beating the war drums' - do not fully understand what war with China will lead to." Photo: Roman Filipe/AP
China Attack Australia
More than four in 10 Australians are concerned that China could attack Australia, with levels of fear almost as high as those in Taiwan, according to a new poll.
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The Australia Institute, a progressive think tank that commissioned the poll in both Australia and Taiwan, said the "surprising" findings could be partly explained by some government officials "beating the drums of war" in Canberra.
When 603 respondents in Australia were asked whether they thought China would launch an armed attack on Australia, 6% said no and 36% said no - a total of 42%.
When 606 respondents in Taiwan were asked the same question—whether they thought China would launch an armed attack on Taiwan—4 percent said soon and 47 percent said sometime later, or a total of 51 percent of the sample.
The proportion of respondents who answered "never" was 24% in Australia and 14% in Taiwan, while the rest said they were not sure or did not know.
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Alan Behm, head of the Australia Institute's international affairs and security program, said there was "no doubt that recent actions by China and anti-China rhetoric in Australia have created fear and insecurity in the Australian community".
"Given the historical and geographical differences between Australia and Taiwan, it's surprising that Australians might fear an attack from China more than from Taiwan," said Bam, a former defense official and former adviser to Labor Statistics Greg Kombat and Penny Wong.
"For the Taiwanese, the potential war and its consequences remain very real, while the Australians - and 'beat the war drums' - do not fully understand what war with China would lead to."
Defense Secretary Peter Dutton said in April that the risk of conflict over Taiwan could not be "discounted". At the same time, Interior Minister Michael Pezzullo said that "free nations" are hearing the "drumbeat" of renewed conflict and must prepare for the "curse of war."
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Australians were also asked if they thought China would launch an armed attack on Taiwan, with 13% saying soon and 36% at some point, or 49% overall.
And when asked whether Australia should send its defense forces to Taiwan to fight for its independence "if China annexes Taiwan", 38% agreed, 29% disagreed and 34% did not know or were unsure.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) considers Taiwan a province of China, although the party has never ruled the island and has vowed to seize it by force if necessary.
Last week, as he marked the centenary of the CCP, Chinese President Xi Jinping said resolving the Taiwan issue was an "unshakable commitment" and vowed to take decisive action to completely defeat any push for "Taiwan independence."
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Melissa Conley Taylor, a research fellow at the University of Melbourne's Asia Institute and co-author of the survey report, said she was "surprised that the same number of Australians believe China will launch an armed attack on Australia as it did on Taiwan".
"It is doubtful that any military planner in the world would agree with this assessment, which raises the question of what is fueling this fear," she said.
Conley Taylor, who is in Taiwan as a visiting fellow funded by a scholarship from Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, questioned whether Taiwan could rely on Australia in a crisis.
Some commentators in Australia and elsewhere argue that politicians who stress the possibility of war with Taiwan may unwittingly serve China's goals.
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Loewy Institute research fellow Natasha Kassam and University of Tasmania senior lecturer Mark Harrison wrote in an article for the Guardian: “Creating a climate of fear around a large-scale conflict is dividing the international community, isolating Taiwan and setting the stage for a grand deal on Beijing's terms. ." ." Australia.
But Dutton earlier defended his comments on the risk of war on Taiwan, saying it was "more important than ever to have a frank and detailed discussion with the Australian people about the risks we face".
In June, Dutton argued that leaders "cannot try to keep Australians out of difficult and complex issues". He described the region as "more complex and far less predictable than at any time since World War II."
The Australian Institute conducted the survey from June 11 to 27, using nationally representative samples by gender and region. The margin of error for national results from Dynata online surveys is 4%.
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